Moonshot AI’s rapid advances in agentic systems, including the July 2026 release of its 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model and expanded Agent Swarm orchestration supporting up to 300 parallel sub-agents, have driven trader consensus toward an 87.1% implied probability for third place. These capabilities deliver competitive or leading results on verified agent benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench, BrowseComp, and long-horizon coding tasks, while recent September finance integrations and desktop tooling further signal practical deployment momentum. In contrast, leading labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google maintain top overall rankings but trail in specialized open agentic tooling and cost-efficient scaling, keeping their third-place odds below 4%. With resolution days away, any final benchmark updates or model tweaks could still shift the narrow gap among lower-probability contenders.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMoonshot 87.1%
Z.ai 5.1%
Mistral 3.4%
Meta 3.4%
$54,098 ปริมาณ
$54,098 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
87%
Z.ai
5%
Mistral
3%
Meta
3%
3%
DeepSeek
3%
SpaceXAI
3%
Anthropic
3%
Alibaba
2%
OpenAI
2%
Amazon
1%
Nvidia
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Baidu
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Moonshot 87.1%
Z.ai 5.1%
Mistral 3.4%
Meta 3.4%
$54,098 ปริมาณ
$54,098 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
$34,493 ปริมาณ
87%
Z.ai
$2,812 ปริมาณ
5%
Mistral
$610 ปริมาณ
3%
Meta
$409 ปริมาณ
3%
$482 ปริมาณ
3%
DeepSeek
$471 ปริมาณ
3%
SpaceXAI
$584 ปริมาณ
3%
Anthropic
$2,459 ปริมาณ
3%
Alibaba
$1,087 ปริมาณ
2%
OpenAI
$7,320 ปริมาณ
2%
Amazon
$414 ปริมาณ
1%
Nvidia
$470 ปริมาณ
1%
Xiaomi
$388 ปริมาณ
<1%
Baidu
$609 ปริมาณ
<1%
MiniMax
$373 ปริมาณ
<1%
ByteDance
$393 ปริมาณ
<1%
Microsoft
$408 ปริมาณ
<1%
Meituan
$318 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s rapid advances in agentic systems, including the July 2026 release of its 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model and expanded Agent Swarm orchestration supporting up to 300 parallel sub-agents, have driven trader consensus toward an 87.1% implied probability for third place. These capabilities deliver competitive or leading results on verified agent benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench, BrowseComp, and long-horizon coding tasks, while recent September finance integrations and desktop tooling further signal practical deployment momentum. In contrast, leading labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google maintain top overall rankings but trail in specialized open agentic tooling and cost-efficient scaling, keeping their third-place odds below 4%. With resolution days away, any final benchmark updates or model tweaks could still shift the narrow gap among lower-probability contenders.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$54,098วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s rapid advances in agentic systems, including the July 2026 release of its 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model and expanded Agent Swarm orchestration supporting up to 300 parallel sub-agents, have driven trader consensus toward an 87.1% implied probability for third place. These capabilities deliver competitive or leading results on verified agent benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench, BrowseComp, and long-horizon coding tasks, while recent September finance integrations and desktop tooling further signal practical deployment momentum. In contrast, leading labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google maintain top overall rankings but trail in specialized open agentic tooling and cost-efficient scaling, keeping their third-place odds below 4%. With resolution days away, any final benchmark updates or model tweaks could still shift the narrow gap among lower-probability contenders.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$54,098วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot AI’s rapid advances in agentic systems, including the July 2026 release of its 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model and expanded Agent Swarm orchestration supporting up to 300 parallel sub-agents, have driven trader consensus toward an 87.1% implied probability for third place. These capabilities deliver competitive or leading results on verified agent benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench, BrowseComp, and long-horizon coding tasks, while recent September finance integrations and desktop tooling further signal practical deployment momentum. In contrast, leading labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google maintain top overall rankings but trail in specialized open agentic tooling and cost-efficient scaling, keeping their third-place odds below 4%. With resolution days away, any final benchmark updates or model tweaks could still shift the narrow gap among lower-probability contenders.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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