Ongoing territorial disputes, particularly Russia's insistence on additional Ukrainian land in Donetsk, continue to block any comprehensive peace agreement despite recent US-mediated diplomatic contacts. Envoys visited Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026 to revive trilateral talks, with both sides signaling possible meetings in October, yet core gaps on security guarantees, energy infrastructure strikes, and battlefield realities persist without resolution from prior rounds earlier in the year. Trader consensus at 97.7% for no deal by October 31 reflects these entrenched positions and the limited timeline. Late developments such as a sudden leader-level concession or verified ceasefire framework could still shift odds, though historical patterns indicate such rapid closure remains improbable.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว2% โอกาส
$12,448 ปริมาณ
$12,448 ปริมาณ
Oct 31, 2026
2% โอกาส
$12,448 ปริมาณ
$12,448 ปริมาณ
Oct 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing territorial disputes, particularly Russia's insistence on additional Ukrainian land in Donetsk, continue to block any comprehensive peace agreement despite recent US-mediated diplomatic contacts. Envoys visited Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026 to revive trilateral talks, with both sides signaling possible meetings in October, yet core gaps on security guarantees, energy infrastructure strikes, and battlefield realities persist without resolution from prior rounds earlier in the year. Trader consensus at 97.7% for no deal by October 31 reflects these entrenched positions and the limited timeline. Late developments such as a sudden leader-level concession or verified ceasefire framework could still shift odds, though historical patterns indicate such rapid closure remains improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,448วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing territorial disputes, particularly Russia's insistence on additional Ukrainian land in Donetsk, continue to block any comprehensive peace agreement despite recent US-mediated diplomatic contacts. Envoys visited Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026 to revive trilateral talks, with both sides signaling possible meetings in October, yet core gaps on security guarantees, energy infrastructure strikes, and battlefield realities persist without resolution from prior rounds earlier in the year. Trader consensus at 97.7% for no deal by October 31 reflects these entrenched positions and the limited timeline. Late developments such as a sudden leader-level concession or verified ceasefire framework could still shift odds, though historical patterns indicate such rapid closure remains improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,448วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Ongoing territorial disputes, particularly Russia's insistence on additional Ukrainian land in Donetsk, continue to block any comprehensive peace agreement despite recent US-mediated diplomatic contacts. Envoys visited Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026 to revive trilateral talks, with both sides signaling possible meetings in October, yet core gaps on security guarantees, energy infrastructure strikes, and battlefield realities persist without resolution from prior rounds earlier in the year. Trader consensus at 97.7% for no deal by October 31 reflects these entrenched positions and the limited timeline. Late developments such as a sudden leader-level concession or verified ceasefire framework could still shift odds, though historical patterns indicate such rapid closure remains improbable.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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