Former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria leads trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, bolstered by her prior incumbency, Navy veteran credentials, January 6 committee service, and superior fundraising that outpaced the Republican incumbent as of early February. Recent April developments, including key endorsements and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee placement in its Red-to-Blue program, have solidified her frontrunner status in this swing district race, while challengers like James Osyf (5.5%), Matt Strickler (4.2%), Patrick Mosolf (3.0%), and Burk Stringfellow (3.0%) lag due to limited name recognition and institutional support. Ahead of the May 26 filing deadline, no polls exist, but market pricing reflects Luria's path-to-victory advantages in a crowded field.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วElaine Luria 87%
Matt Strickler 8.5%
James Osyf 4.7%
Burk Stringfellow 3.1%
Elaine Luria
87%
Matt Strickler
9%
James Osyf
5%
Burk Stringfellow
3%
Patrick Mosolf
3%
Nila Devanath
1%
Nicolaus Sleister
<1%
Elaine Luria 87%
Matt Strickler 8.5%
James Osyf 4.7%
Burk Stringfellow 3.1%
Elaine Luria
87%
Matt Strickler
9%
James Osyf
5%
Burk Stringfellow
3%
Patrick Mosolf
3%
Nila Devanath
1%
Nicolaus Sleister
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria leads trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, bolstered by her prior incumbency, Navy veteran credentials, January 6 committee service, and superior fundraising that outpaced the Republican incumbent as of early February. Recent April developments, including key endorsements and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee placement in its Red-to-Blue program, have solidified her frontrunner status in this swing district race, while challengers like James Osyf (5.5%), Matt Strickler (4.2%), Patrick Mosolf (3.0%), and Burk Stringfellow (3.0%) lag due to limited name recognition and institutional support. Ahead of the May 26 filing deadline, no polls exist, but market pricing reflects Luria's path-to-victory advantages in a crowded field.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย