Pete Fry leads the Vancouver mayoral race at 64% implied probability, ahead of incumbent Ken Sim at 34.5%, with all other candidates at 0.1%. The September 8 withdrawal of OneCity candidate William Azaroff consolidated progressive support behind the Green Party councillor, narrowing the field against Sim’s ABC Vancouver slate ahead of the October 17 vote. A late-September Justason poll showed Fry at 45% among decided voters to Sim’s 30%, reversing earlier surveys where the incumbent held an edge. Traders appear to price the unified opposition and Fry’s consistent polling advantage as decisive factors, though Sim retains a path through strong male and homeowner support and lingering undecided voters. No further major shifts have emerged in the final week.