Incumbent Republican Phil Scott holds a commanding lead in partial 2026 Vermont gubernatorial results, reflecting his established record of broad voter support across multiple reelection cycles and the state's divided government dynamics. Early tallies show Scott ahead by roughly eight to ten points, consistent with pre-election polling averages that narrowed but still favored the five-term governor over first-time Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo. Traders assign Scott a 99.2% implied probability due to this vote trajectory and historical patterns of Republican incumbents retaining the office despite Democratic legislative majorities. Remaining uncounted ballots from urban areas or procedural certification steps represent the primary variables that could alter the outcome, though current margins make a reversal unlikely.