In the open race to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler in New York's 12th Congressional District, trader consensus favors state Assemblyman Alex Bores at 47.5% implied probability, propelled by recent endorsements from Rep. Pat Ryan on May 11 and the United Federation of Teachers last week, alongside his campaign's first TV ad launch. Fellow Assemblyman Micah Lasher holds 35%, bolstered by Gov. Kathy Hochul's April backing and his positioning as Nadler's Upper West Side protege amid candidate forums in April. Jack Schlossberg trails at 19% on Kennedy family name recognition and social media clout, despite earlier polls showing him ahead, as skepticism grows in this crowded, affluent Manhattan Democratic primary set for June 23.
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NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner
Alex Bores 47%
Micah Lasher 35%
Jack Schlossberg 19%
Cameron Kasky <1%
$355,354 ปริมาณ
$355,354 ปริมาณ
Jun 23, 2026
Alex Bores
47%
Micah Lasher
35%
Jack Schlossberg
19%
Cameron Kasky
<1%
Liz Krueger
<1%
Lina Khan
<1%
Brad Hoylman-Sigal
<1%
Keith Powers
<1%
Liam Elkind
<1%
Erik Bottcher
<1%
Carolyn Maloney
<1%
Gale Brewer
<1%
Brad Lander
<1%
Julie Menin
<1%
Chelsea Clinton
<1%
Scott Stringer
<1%
Andrew Cuomo
<1%
Cynthia Nixon
<1%
George Conway
<1%
Alex Bores 47%
Micah Lasher 35%
Jack Schlossberg 19%
Cameron Kasky <1%
$355,354 ปริมาณ
$355,354 ปริมาณ
Jun 23, 2026
Alex Bores
$7,547 ปริมาณ
47%
Micah Lasher
$16,357 ปริมาณ
35%
Jack Schlossberg
$10,900 ปริมาณ
19%
Cameron Kasky
$5,610 ปริมาณ
<1%
Liz Krueger
$58,200 ปริมาณ
<1%
Lina Khan
$40,917 ปริมาณ
<1%
Brad Hoylman-Sigal
$7,061 ปริมาณ
<1%
Keith Powers
$5,767 ปริมาณ
<1%
Liam Elkind
$3,990 ปริมาณ
<1%
Erik Bottcher
$4,159 ปริมาณ
<1%
Carolyn Maloney
$4,417 ปริมาณ
<1%
Gale Brewer
$3,887 ปริมาณ
<1%
Brad Lander
$80,539 ปริมาณ
<1%
Julie Menin
$25,004 ปริมาณ
<1%
Chelsea Clinton
$9,815 ปริมาณ
<1%
Scott Stringer
$58,395 ปริมาณ
<1%
Andrew Cuomo
$4,821 ปริมาณ
<1%
Cynthia Nixon
$4,304 ปริมาณ
<1%
George Conway
$3,664 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open race to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler in New York's 12th Congressional District, trader consensus favors state Assemblyman Alex Bores at 47.5% implied probability, propelled by recent endorsements from Rep. Pat Ryan on May 11 and the United Federation of Teachers last week, alongside his campaign's first TV ad launch. Fellow Assemblyman Micah Lasher holds 35%, bolstered by Gov. Kathy Hochul's April backing and his positioning as Nadler's Upper West Side protege amid candidate forums in April. Jack Schlossberg trails at 19% on Kennedy family name recognition and social media clout, despite earlier polls showing him ahead, as skepticism grows in this crowded, affluent Manhattan Democratic primary set for June 23.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$355,354วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open race to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler in New York's 12th Congressional District, trader consensus favors state Assemblyman Alex Bores at 47.5% implied probability, propelled by recent endorsements from Rep. Pat Ryan on May 11 and the United Federation of Teachers last week, alongside his campaign's first TV ad launch. Fellow Assemblyman Micah Lasher holds 35%, bolstered by Gov. Kathy Hochul's April backing and his positioning as Nadler's Upper West Side protege amid candidate forums in April. Jack Schlossberg trails at 19% on Kennedy family name recognition and social media clout, despite earlier polls showing him ahead, as skepticism grows in this crowded, affluent Manhattan Democratic primary set for June 23.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$355,354วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In the open race to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler in New York's 12th Congressional District, trader consensus favors state Assemblyman Alex Bores at 47.5% implied probability, propelled by recent endorsements from Rep. Pat Ryan on May 11 and the United Federation of Teachers last week, alongside his campaign's first TV ad launch. Fellow Assemblyman Micah Lasher holds 35%, bolstered by Gov. Kathy Hochul's April backing and his positioning as Nadler's Upper West Side protege amid candidate forums in April. Jack Schlossberg trails at 19% on Kennedy family name recognition and social media clout, despite earlier polls showing him ahead, as skepticism grows in this crowded, affluent Manhattan Democratic primary set for June 23.
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