Trump’s pending decision in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff between Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent Senator John Cornyn remains the dominant factor shaping trader expectations. After the March primary produced no majority winner, Trump endorsed dozens of Texas candidates for House and statewide races but has repeatedly delayed a Senate pick, stating in mid-May that he knows both contenders well and could announce “relatively soon.” Early voting begins May 18 ahead of the May 26 runoff, creating immediate pressure for a pre-election statement. Recent catalysts include Cornyn’s May 10 social-media activity drawing MAGA criticism and activist efforts linking the endorsement to stalled legislation. Parallel developments in Kentucky’s Senate primary and other state contests illustrate Trump’s pattern of using endorsements to consolidate Republican support, though resolution timing hinges on his public statements rather than fixed deadlines.