The low annual probability of a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in California underpins the 87% market-implied odds for "No" in 2026. USGS long-term models, including UCERF3, estimate roughly 46-51% odds for such an event over 30 years in key regions like the San Francisco Bay Area or Los Angeles, translating to modest single-year chances given historical recurrence intervals of decades between 7.0+ ruptures on major faults such as the San Andreas. Through mid-August 2026, official monitoring shows only moderate activity, including a 5.6 event in June near Redwood Valley and smaller aftershocks, with no qualifying mainshocks recorded. Ongoing seismic data releases and fault strain assessments continue to support trader consensus around typical background rates rather than elevated short-term risk.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
13% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jan 1, 2027
13% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. The low annual probability of a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in California underpins the 87% market-implied odds for "No" in 2026. USGS long-term models, including UCERF3, estimate roughly 46-51% odds for such an event over 30 years in key regions like the San Francisco Bay Area or Los Angeles, translating to modest single-year chances given historical recurrence intervals of decades between 7.0+ ruptures on major faults such as the San Andreas. Through mid-August 2026, official monitoring shows only moderate activity, including a 5.6 event in June near Redwood Valley and smaller aftershocks, with no qualifying mainshocks recorded. Ongoing seismic data releases and fault strain assessments continue to support trader consensus around typical background rates rather than elevated short-term risk.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,805วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. The low annual probability of a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in California underpins the 87% market-implied odds for "No" in 2026. USGS long-term models, including UCERF3, estimate roughly 46-51% odds for such an event over 30 years in key regions like the San Francisco Bay Area or Los Angeles, translating to modest single-year chances given historical recurrence intervals of decades between 7.0+ ruptures on major faults such as the San Andreas. Through mid-August 2026, official monitoring shows only moderate activity, including a 5.6 event in June near Redwood Valley and smaller aftershocks, with no qualifying mainshocks recorded. Ongoing seismic data releases and fault strain assessments continue to support trader consensus around typical background rates rather than elevated short-term risk.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,805วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The low annual probability of a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in California underpins the 87% market-implied odds for "No" in 2026. USGS long-term models, including UCERF3, estimate roughly 46-51% odds for such an event over 30 years in key regions like the San Francisco Bay Area or Los Angeles, translating to modest single-year chances given historical recurrence intervals of decades between 7.0+ ruptures on major faults such as the San Andreas. Through mid-August 2026, official monitoring shows only moderate activity, including a 5.6 event in June near Redwood Valley and smaller aftershocks, with no qualifying mainshocks recorded. Ongoing seismic data releases and fault strain assessments continue to support trader consensus around typical background rates rather than elevated short-term risk.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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