Canada's population declined by roughly 102,000 people in 2025, marking the first annual drop since Confederation, as outflows of non-permanent residents accelerated under the federal Immigration Levels Plan. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections released in February 2026 indicate flat overall growth for 2026, with net NPR reductions largely offset by permanent resident admissions and minimal natural increase. This trajectory suggests any 2026 contraction will likely fall short of the prior year's magnitude, supporting the current 53.5 percent trader consensus favoring "No." Key variables that could shift odds include faster-than-expected NPR exits, adjustments to temporary resident targets, or stronger economic-driven inflows before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
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Apr 30, 2027
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Apr 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada's population declined by roughly 102,000 people in 2025, marking the first annual drop since Confederation, as outflows of non-permanent residents accelerated under the federal Immigration Levels Plan. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections released in February 2026 indicate flat overall growth for 2026, with net NPR reductions largely offset by permanent resident admissions and minimal natural increase. This trajectory suggests any 2026 contraction will likely fall short of the prior year's magnitude, supporting the current 53.5 percent trader consensus favoring "No." Key variables that could shift odds include faster-than-expected NPR exits, adjustments to temporary resident targets, or stronger economic-driven inflows before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,512วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada's population declined by roughly 102,000 people in 2025, marking the first annual drop since Confederation, as outflows of non-permanent residents accelerated under the federal Immigration Levels Plan. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections released in February 2026 indicate flat overall growth for 2026, with net NPR reductions largely offset by permanent resident admissions and minimal natural increase. This trajectory suggests any 2026 contraction will likely fall short of the prior year's magnitude, supporting the current 53.5 percent trader consensus favoring "No." Key variables that could shift odds include faster-than-expected NPR exits, adjustments to temporary resident targets, or stronger economic-driven inflows before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,512วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada's population declined by roughly 102,000 people in 2025, marking the first annual drop since Confederation, as outflows of non-permanent residents accelerated under the federal Immigration Levels Plan. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections released in February 2026 indicate flat overall growth for 2026, with net NPR reductions largely offset by permanent resident admissions and minimal natural increase. This trajectory suggests any 2026 contraction will likely fall short of the prior year's magnitude, supporting the current 53.5 percent trader consensus favoring "No." Key variables that could shift odds include faster-than-expected NPR exits, adjustments to temporary resident targets, or stronger economic-driven inflows before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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