Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistical surges in the past month. Recent developments center on routine gray-zone pressure, including continued air and maritime incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ and coast guard patrols east of the island, alongside Beijing’s diplomatic protests over Taiwanese officials’ international travel. Taiwan has advanced asymmetric defenses through expanded drone procurement, live-fire integration of unmanned systems, and supplementary budgets for long-range strike capabilities, while U.S. and allied statements emphasize deterrence against status changes by force. Full-scale invasion preparations typically require months of visible buildup not evident in current patterns. Late developments such as an acute crisis or miscalculation remain theoretically possible but face significant operational and political barriers within the narrow remaining window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว<1% โอกาส
$2,131,054 ปริมาณ
$2,131,054 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
<1% โอกาส
$2,131,054 ปริมาณ
$2,131,054 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistical surges in the past month. Recent developments center on routine gray-zone pressure, including continued air and maritime incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ and coast guard patrols east of the island, alongside Beijing’s diplomatic protests over Taiwanese officials’ international travel. Taiwan has advanced asymmetric defenses through expanded drone procurement, live-fire integration of unmanned systems, and supplementary budgets for long-range strike capabilities, while U.S. and allied statements emphasize deterrence against status changes by force. Full-scale invasion preparations typically require months of visible buildup not evident in current patterns. Late developments such as an acute crisis or miscalculation remain theoretically possible but face significant operational and political barriers within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,131,054วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistical surges in the past month. Recent developments center on routine gray-zone pressure, including continued air and maritime incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ and coast guard patrols east of the island, alongside Beijing’s diplomatic protests over Taiwanese officials’ international travel. Taiwan has advanced asymmetric defenses through expanded drone procurement, live-fire integration of unmanned systems, and supplementary budgets for long-range strike capabilities, while U.S. and allied statements emphasize deterrence against status changes by force. Full-scale invasion preparations typically require months of visible buildup not evident in current patterns. Late developments such as an acute crisis or miscalculation remain theoretically possible but face significant operational and political barriers within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,131,184วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistical surges in the past month. Recent developments center on routine gray-zone pressure, including continued air and maritime incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ and coast guard patrols east of the island, alongside Beijing’s diplomatic protests over Taiwanese officials’ international travel. Taiwan has advanced asymmetric defenses through expanded drone procurement, live-fire integration of unmanned systems, and supplementary budgets for long-range strike capabilities, while U.S. and allied statements emphasize deterrence against status changes by force. Full-scale invasion preparations typically require months of visible buildup not evident in current patterns. Late developments such as an acute crisis or miscalculation remain theoretically possible but face significant operational and political barriers within the narrow remaining window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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