Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior Central Military Commission figures like Zhang Youxia, has reinforced centralized control over the People’s Liberation Army and Chinese Communist Party structures. These actions, framed officially as anti-corruption measures, eliminated potential rivals without triggering organized resistance or factional upheaval. Traders assign a 96% probability to no coup attempt before 2027 because opaque leadership transitions, party discipline, and surveillance mechanisms have historically suppressed challenges, with no verifiable signs of coordinated opposition emerging in 2025–2026. Even amid speculation around recent personnel shifts, primary reporting shows continued obedience rather than fractures. Unlikely but plausible disruptors include a sudden leadership vacuum from health events or an acute economic shock that erodes elite loyalty, though structural barriers make these low-probability outcomes within the resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว4% โอกาส
$153,750 ปริมาณ
$153,750 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
4% โอกาส
$153,750 ปริมาณ
$153,750 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior Central Military Commission figures like Zhang Youxia, has reinforced centralized control over the People’s Liberation Army and Chinese Communist Party structures. These actions, framed officially as anti-corruption measures, eliminated potential rivals without triggering organized resistance or factional upheaval. Traders assign a 96% probability to no coup attempt before 2027 because opaque leadership transitions, party discipline, and surveillance mechanisms have historically suppressed challenges, with no verifiable signs of coordinated opposition emerging in 2025–2026. Even amid speculation around recent personnel shifts, primary reporting shows continued obedience rather than fractures. Unlikely but plausible disruptors include a sudden leadership vacuum from health events or an acute economic shock that erodes elite loyalty, though structural barriers make these low-probability outcomes within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$153,750วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior Central Military Commission figures like Zhang Youxia, has reinforced centralized control over the People’s Liberation Army and Chinese Communist Party structures. These actions, framed officially as anti-corruption measures, eliminated potential rivals without triggering organized resistance or factional upheaval. Traders assign a 96% probability to no coup attempt before 2027 because opaque leadership transitions, party discipline, and surveillance mechanisms have historically suppressed challenges, with no verifiable signs of coordinated opposition emerging in 2025–2026. Even amid speculation around recent personnel shifts, primary reporting shows continued obedience rather than fractures. Unlikely but plausible disruptors include a sudden leadership vacuum from health events or an acute economic shock that erodes elite loyalty, though structural barriers make these low-probability outcomes within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$153,750วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior Central Military Commission figures like Zhang Youxia, has reinforced centralized control over the People’s Liberation Army and Chinese Communist Party structures. These actions, framed officially as anti-corruption measures, eliminated potential rivals without triggering organized resistance or factional upheaval. Traders assign a 96% probability to no coup attempt before 2027 because opaque leadership transitions, party discipline, and surveillance mechanisms have historically suppressed challenges, with no verifiable signs of coordinated opposition emerging in 2025–2026. Even amid speculation around recent personnel shifts, primary reporting shows continued obedience rather than fractures. Unlikely but plausible disruptors include a sudden leadership vacuum from health events or an acute economic shock that erodes elite loyalty, though structural barriers make these low-probability outcomes within the resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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