Iran maintains firm military and administrative control over Abu Musa and the adjacent Tunb islands near the Strait of Hormuz, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps recently deploying additional missile systems and conducting drills on the sites. In late September 2026, the UAE renewed its longstanding sovereignty claims during the UN General Assembly, advocating direct negotiations or referral to the International Court of Justice, while Iranian representatives rejected the position as non-negotiable and reaffirmed the islands as integral territory since 1971. GCC and Arab League statements have echoed UAE concerns over Iranian infrastructure and demographic measures, yet no enforcement mechanisms or shifts in effective control have materialized. Trader assessments of any near-term change in status therefore center on the durability of Iran’s forward military posture, the absence of credible escalation pathways, and the persistence of diplomatic deadlock.