Incumbent-like favorite Jerry Carl commands trader consensus at 68.5% implied probability to win the AL-01 Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his prior congressional service, strong name recognition, and dominance in Mobile County despite a fragmented field. A May 2-4 PI poll for Alabama Daily News showed State Rep. Rhett Marques surging to a narrow 27-21% lead over Carl among likely voters, with 45% undecided and Joshua McKee at 4%, reflecting Marques' fundraising strength and endorsements like Sen. Katie Britt's. High undecideds and no post-poll shifts leave room for Carl consolidation, potentially avoiding a June 16 runoff in this open seat race vacated by Barry Moore's Senate bid.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateAL-01 Republican Primary Winner
AL-01 Republican Primary Winner
Jerry Carl 72%
Austin Sidwell 22.5%
Rhett Marques 8%
James Richardson 2.9%
$40,572 Vol.
$40,572 Vol.
Jerry Carl
69%
Austin Sidwell
22%
Rhett Marques
22%
James Richardson
3%
James Dees
3%
Joshua McKee
2%
John Mills
1%
Jerry Carl 72%
Austin Sidwell 22.5%
Rhett Marques 8%
James Richardson 2.9%
$40,572 Vol.
$40,572 Vol.
Jerry Carl
69%
Austin Sidwell
22%
Rhett Marques
22%
James Richardson
3%
James Dees
3%
Joshua McKee
2%
John Mills
1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 26, 2026, 4:19 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent-like favorite Jerry Carl commands trader consensus at 68.5% implied probability to win the AL-01 Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his prior congressional service, strong name recognition, and dominance in Mobile County despite a fragmented field. A May 2-4 PI poll for Alabama Daily News showed State Rep. Rhett Marques surging to a narrow 27-21% lead over Carl among likely voters, with 45% undecided and Joshua McKee at 4%, reflecting Marques' fundraising strength and endorsements like Sen. Katie Britt's. High undecideds and no post-poll shifts leave room for Carl consolidation, potentially avoiding a June 16 runoff in this open seat race vacated by Barry Moore's Senate bid.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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