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Politika·Halalan Sa US

Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory

icon for Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
Politika·Halalan Sa US

Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory

Markey 25–30% 34%

Markey 15–20% 33%

Markey 30–35% 32%

Markey 20–25% 32%

Polymarket
BAGO

Markey 25–30% 34%

Markey 15–20% 33%

Markey 30–35% 32%

Markey 20–25% 32%

Polymarket
BAGO
icon for Markey 40%+

Markey 40%+

$16 Vol.

30%

icon for Markey 35–40%

Markey 35–40%

$16 Vol.

27%

icon for Markey 30–35%

Markey 30–35%

$16 Vol.

32%

icon for Markey 25–30%

Markey 25–30%

$16 Vol.

34%

icon for Markey 20–25%

Markey 20–25%

$16 Vol.

32%

icon for Markey 15–20%

Markey 15–20%

$16 Vol.

33%

icon for Markey 10–15%

Markey 10–15%

$16 Vol.

31%

icon for Markey 5–10%

Markey 5–10%

$16 Vol.

24%

icon for Markey <5%

Markey <5%

$16 Vol.

23%

icon for Moulton <5%

Moulton <5%

$16 Vol.

30%

icon for Moulton 5%+

Moulton 5%+

$16 Vol.

22%

The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling has solidified trader consensus around Ed Markey's sizable lead in the September 1 Democratic primary, with the latest UMass/WCVB and Suffolk surveys showing the incumbent at 52-60% support versus 32-38% for challenger Seth Moulton among likely voters. This shift from tighter spring numbers reflects Markey's stronger job approval, perceived alignment with Massachusetts Democratic priorities, and endorsements including from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, while Moulton trails on trust metrics and is viewed as more moderate. The final debate and Boston Globe endorsement of Moulton introduce limited late momentum potential, yet the compressed timeline and low undecided share limit upside for major swings, supporting elevated probabilities on double-digit Markey margins alongside residual uncertainty captured in the "Other" outcome.

The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$176
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 1, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.sec.state.ma.us/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling has solidified trader consensus around Ed Markey's sizable lead in the September 1 Democratic primary, with the latest UMass/WCVB and Suffolk surveys showing the incumbent at 52-60% support versus 32-38% for challenger Seth Moulton among likely voters. This shift from tighter spring numbers reflects Markey's stronger job approval, perceived alignment with Massachusetts Democratic priorities, and endorsements including from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, while Moulton trails on trust metrics and is viewed as more moderate. The final debate and Boston Globe endorsement of Moulton introduce limited late momentum potential, yet the compressed timeline and low undecided share limit upside for major swings, supporting elevated probabilities on double-digit Markey margins alongside residual uncertainty captured in the "Other" outcome.

The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$176
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 1, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.sec.state.ma.us/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Kaugnay

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Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?

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icon for Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 11 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Markey 25–30%" sa 34%, sinusundan ng "Markey 15–20%" sa 33%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 34¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 34% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Aug 20, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory," i-browse ang 11 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory" ay "Markey 25–30%" sa 34%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 34% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Markey 15–20%" sa 33%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.