Ongoing Houthi attacks and threats, including a deadly strike on a cargo ship in mid-August that killed six seafarers, remain the dominant driver keeping implied probabilities elevated for averages below 30 vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by month-end. Recent Kpler and Clarksons data show daily crossings fluctuating between 20 and 40, well below pre-conflict norms, as elevated war-risk premiums, rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and selective blockades on Saudi-linked traffic compress volumes. Trader consensus reflected in the 44.8% probability for fewer than 25 transits aligns with persistent geopolitical friction and insurance cost pressures that continue to deter full recovery in Red Sea routing despite intermittent upticks tied to diplomatic signals.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
<25 44.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 20%
35-39 6%
$14,964 Vol.
$14,964 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
45%
25-29
27%
30-34
20%
35-39
6%
40+
2%
<25 44.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 20%
35-39 6%
$14,964 Vol.
$14,964 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
$2,915 Vol.
45%
25-29
$3,493 Vol.
27%
30-34
$3,754 Vol.
20%
35-39
$1,063 Vol.
6%
40+
$3,738 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi attacks and threats, including a deadly strike on a cargo ship in mid-August that killed six seafarers, remain the dominant driver keeping implied probabilities elevated for averages below 30 vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by month-end. Recent Kpler and Clarksons data show daily crossings fluctuating between 20 and 40, well below pre-conflict norms, as elevated war-risk premiums, rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and selective blockades on Saudi-linked traffic compress volumes. Trader consensus reflected in the 44.8% probability for fewer than 25 transits aligns with persistent geopolitical friction and insurance cost pressures that continue to deter full recovery in Red Sea routing despite intermittent upticks tied to diplomatic signals.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$14,964Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi attacks and threats, including a deadly strike on a cargo ship in mid-August that killed six seafarers, remain the dominant driver keeping implied probabilities elevated for averages below 30 vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by month-end. Recent Kpler and Clarksons data show daily crossings fluctuating between 20 and 40, well below pre-conflict norms, as elevated war-risk premiums, rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and selective blockades on Saudi-linked traffic compress volumes. Trader consensus reflected in the 44.8% probability for fewer than 25 transits aligns with persistent geopolitical friction and insurance cost pressures that continue to deter full recovery in Red Sea routing despite intermittent upticks tied to diplomatic signals.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$14,964Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Houthi attacks and threats, including a deadly strike on a cargo ship in mid-August that killed six seafarers, remain the dominant driver keeping implied probabilities elevated for averages below 30 vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by month-end. Recent Kpler and Clarksons data show daily crossings fluctuating between 20 and 40, well below pre-conflict norms, as elevated war-risk premiums, rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and selective blockades on Saudi-linked traffic compress volumes. Trader consensus reflected in the 44.8% probability for fewer than 25 transits aligns with persistent geopolitical friction and insurance cost pressures that continue to deter full recovery in Red Sea routing despite intermittent upticks tied to diplomatic signals.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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