Traders assign an 84.5% implied probability to a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at the June 19 meeting, driven by the April 24 cut of 50 basis points to 14.5%—the eighth consecutive reduction since the 21% peak—and ongoing disinflation signals. March CPI moderated to 5.9% year-over-year, while the central bank’s medium-term forecast projects annual inflation settling at 4.5–5.5% for 2026, with underlying price growth near 4% in the second half. Governor Nabiullina’s communications highlight accumulated policy tightness and ruble strength around 74 USD/RUB as factors easing imported inflation pressures, supporting further modest easing toward the 14.0–14.5% average baseline for the year. Persistent pro-inflationary risks from fiscal spending and external uncertainty keep no-change odds at 12.5%, with hikes remaining negligible.