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icon for Unang Halalan ng Pangulo ng Brazil: Ikalawang Lugar
Politika·Brazil

Unang Halalan ng Pangulo ng Brazil: Ikalawang Lugar

icon for Unang Halalan ng Pangulo ng Brazil: Ikalawang Lugar
Politika·Brazil

Unang Halalan ng Pangulo ng Brazil: Ikalawang Lugar

Flávio Bolsonaro 84%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 8.2%

Renan Santos 6.0%

Ronaldo Caiado 1.1%

Polymarket

$4,607,232 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 84%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 8.2%

Renan Santos 6.0%

Ronaldo Caiado 1.1%

Polymarket

$4,607,232 Vol.

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$251,942 Vol.

84%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$227,331 Vol.

8%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$1,100,423 Vol.

6%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$353,622 Vol.

1%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$299,270 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$692,351 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$133,214 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$128,809 Vol.

<1%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$104,312 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$101,410 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$62,257 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$197,416 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$673,156 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$154,157 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$71,116 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helder Barbalho

Helder Barbalho

$20,972 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tereza Cristina

Tereza Cristina

$35,475 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds an overwhelming lead in trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent polls consistently place him as the strongest right-wing contender behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Multiple surveys from July and early August show Lula in the low 40s and Flávio in the low-to-mid 30s, with all other candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—remaining in low single digits. Flávio secured his Liberal Party nomination in late July after reconciling family and party issues that surfaced earlier in the year, reinforcing his position as the primary opposition standard-bearer. The wide polling gap and absence of viable alternative challengers on the right underpin the current market pricing, while Lula’s steady first-place standing limits any immediate shifts in second-place probabilities.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$4,607,232
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds an overwhelming lead in trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent polls consistently place him as the strongest right-wing contender behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Multiple surveys from July and early August show Lula in the low 40s and Flávio in the low-to-mid 30s, with all other candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—remaining in low single digits. Flávio secured his Liberal Party nomination in late July after reconciling family and party issues that surfaced earlier in the year, reinforcing his position as the primary opposition standard-bearer. The wide polling gap and absence of viable alternative challengers on the right underpin the current market pricing, while Lula’s steady first-place standing limits any immediate shifts in second-place probabilities.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$4,607,232
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Kaugnay

icon for Mananalo ba si Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sa 2026 na halalan sa pagkapangulo ng Brazil?

Mananalo ba si Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sa 2026 na halalan sa pagkapangulo ng Brazil?

64%
Oo
icon for Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

11%
icon for Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

94%

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Unang Halalan ng Pangulo ng Brazil: Ikalawang Lugar" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 17 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Flávio Bolsonaro" sa 84%, sinusundan ng "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" sa 8%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 84¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 84% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Unang Halalan ng Pangulo ng Brazil: Ikalawang Lugar" ay naka-generate ng $4.6 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Feb 11, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Unang Halalan ng Pangulo ng Brazil: Ikalawang Lugar," i-browse ang 17 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Unang Halalan ng Pangulo ng Brazil: Ikalawang Lugar" ay "Flávio Bolsonaro" sa 84%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 84% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" sa 8%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Unang Halalan ng Pangulo ng Brazil: Ikalawang Lugar" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.