Recent polling from early May places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie for the October 4 first round, with Lula at 38–40 percent and Flávio at 36–37 percent amid a fragmented field that includes Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado. Jair Bolsonaro’s December 2025 endorsement of his son has consolidated right-wing support, while Lula’s approval ratings hover near 44–47 percent amid ongoing economic pressures. These dynamics keep the projected margin of victory narrow, directing trader consensus toward outcomes under five percentage points for either frontrunner and limiting the implied probability of wider gaps or victories by lesser-known candidates such as Renan Santos.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 22%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 19%
Other 8.4%
$231,666 Vol.
$231,666 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
4%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
8%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
19%
Lula da Silva <5%
35%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
22%
Renan Santos Victory
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
<1%
Other
8%
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 22%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 19%
Other 8.4%
$231,666 Vol.
$231,666 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$4,601 Vol.
4%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$2,627 Vol.
8%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$6,817 Vol.
19%
Lula da Silva <5%
$2,923 Vol.
35%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$1,984 Vol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$2,309 Vol.
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$4,026 Vol.
22%
Renan Santos Victory
$200,633 Vol.
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$1,712 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$1,774 Vol.
<1%
Other
$2,258 Vol.
8%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from early May places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie for the October 4 first round, with Lula at 38–40 percent and Flávio at 36–37 percent amid a fragmented field that includes Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado. Jair Bolsonaro’s December 2025 endorsement of his son has consolidated right-wing support, while Lula’s approval ratings hover near 44–47 percent amid ongoing economic pressures. These dynamics keep the projected margin of victory narrow, directing trader consensus toward outcomes under five percentage points for either frontrunner and limiting the implied probability of wider gaps or victories by lesser-known candidates such as Renan Santos.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$231,666Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from early May places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie for the October 4 first round, with Lula at 38–40 percent and Flávio at 36–37 percent amid a fragmented field that includes Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado. Jair Bolsonaro’s December 2025 endorsement of his son has consolidated right-wing support, while Lula’s approval ratings hover near 44–47 percent amid ongoing economic pressures. These dynamics keep the projected margin of victory narrow, directing trader consensus toward outcomes under five percentage points for either frontrunner and limiting the implied probability of wider gaps or victories by lesser-known candidates such as Renan Santos.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$231,666Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling from early May places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie for the October 4 first round, with Lula at 38–40 percent and Flávio at 36–37 percent amid a fragmented field that includes Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado. Jair Bolsonaro’s December 2025 endorsement of his son has consolidated right-wing support, while Lula’s approval ratings hover near 44–47 percent amid ongoing economic pressures. These dynamics keep the projected margin of victory narrow, directing trader consensus toward outcomes under five percentage points for either frontrunner and limiting the implied probability of wider gaps or victories by lesser-known candidates such as Renan Santos.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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