**Latest numerical weather prediction models point to a modest winter maximum of 13–14°C in Buenos Aires on June 15, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 14°C (35.5%), 13°C (21.5%), and 15°C (21.0%).** In mid-June, the Southern Hemisphere winter places the city under typical climatological conditions where daily highs average near 15°C but frequently range 12–16°C depending on frontal passages and Río de la Plata onshore flow. Current short-range guidance shows a stable high-pressure influence with morning clouds and light winds, limiting daytime heating and keeping the peak in the low-to-mid 50s °F (13–14°C). No strong cold front or significant warm advection is expected to push readings notably higher or lower, which explains why the implied probabilities cluster tightly around these values rather than the tails. Updated model runs overnight will refine boundary-layer details and any minor wind-shift effects that could nudge the exact maximum by 1°C.