Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System currently converge on a daytime maximum of 21–22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, aligning with the mid-May climatological average recorded by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This narrow clustering of model guidance, driven by stable high-pressure conditions and light southerly flow across the Marmara region, explains why trader sentiment splits almost evenly between the 21 °C and 22 °C outcomes while assigning only modest probability to 23 °C or higher. Minor differences in predicted cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing account for the remaining uncertainty in the exact peak reading. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final refinement ahead of official station observations used for market resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 18?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 18?
21°C 33%
22°C 31%
23°C or higher 16.4%
20°C 14%
BAGO
BAGO
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
5%
20°C
14%
21°C
33%
22°C
31%
23°C or higher
16%
21°C 33%
22°C 31%
23°C or higher 16.4%
20°C 14%
BAGO
BAGO
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
$589 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$809 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,124 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$800 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,704 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,212 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$825 Vol.
5%
20°C
$442 Vol.
14%
21°C
$503 Vol.
33%
22°C
$385 Vol.
31%
23°C or higher
$990 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System currently converge on a daytime maximum of 21–22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, aligning with the mid-May climatological average recorded by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This narrow clustering of model guidance, driven by stable high-pressure conditions and light southerly flow across the Marmara region, explains why trader sentiment splits almost evenly between the 21 °C and 22 °C outcomes while assigning only modest probability to 23 °C or higher. Minor differences in predicted cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing account for the remaining uncertainty in the exact peak reading. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final refinement ahead of official station observations used for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Binuksan ang Market: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$9,320Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 18, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System currently converge on a daytime maximum of 21–22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, aligning with the mid-May climatological average recorded by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This narrow clustering of model guidance, driven by stable high-pressure conditions and light southerly flow across the Marmara region, explains why trader sentiment splits almost evenly between the 21 °C and 22 °C outcomes while assigning only modest probability to 23 °C or higher. Minor differences in predicted cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing account for the remaining uncertainty in the exact peak reading. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final refinement ahead of official station observations used for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,320Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 18, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETEnsemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System currently converge on a daytime maximum of 21–22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, aligning with the mid-May climatological average recorded by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This narrow clustering of model guidance, driven by stable high-pressure conditions and light southerly flow across the Marmara region, explains why trader sentiment splits almost evenly between the 21 °C and 22 °C outcomes while assigning only modest probability to 23 °C or higher. Minor differences in predicted cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing account for the remaining uncertainty in the exact peak reading. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final refinement ahead of official station observations used for market resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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