Recent National Weather Service model runs have introduced significant uncertainty into Miami’s minimum temperature outlook for May 21, with ensemble guidance showing a broad spread driven by variable steering flow and the potential for either cooler northerly advection or persistent subtropical high pressure. This forecast divergence explains the nearly even market-implied odds between sub-74 °F outcomes and those exceeding 90 °F, as traders weigh the strength of any approaching frontal boundary against typical May climatology where overnight lows average near 73 °F. Upcoming updates from NOAA’s Global Forecast System and local Miami offices will likely narrow the range as the date nears.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLowest temperature in Miami on May 21?
73°F or below 44%
92°F or higher 41%
78-79°F 18%
82-83°F 18%
73°F or below
44%
74-75°F
16%
76-77°F
18%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
15%
88-89°F
12%
90-91°F
11%
92°F or higher
41%
73°F or below 44%
92°F or higher 41%
78-79°F 18%
82-83°F 18%
73°F or below
44%
74-75°F
16%
76-77°F
18%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
15%
88-89°F
12%
90-91°F
11%
92°F or higher
41%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Binuksan ang Market: May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIARecent National Weather Service model runs have introduced significant uncertainty into Miami’s minimum temperature outlook for May 21, with ensemble guidance showing a broad spread driven by variable steering flow and the potential for either cooler northerly advection or persistent subtropical high pressure. This forecast divergence explains the nearly even market-implied odds between sub-74 °F outcomes and those exceeding 90 °F, as traders weigh the strength of any approaching frontal boundary against typical May climatology where overnight lows average near 73 °F. Upcoming updates from NOAA’s Global Forecast System and local Miami offices will likely narrow the range as the date nears.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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