Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models place Istanbul’s May 17 high near 21 °C amid moderate northerly flow off the Black Sea and variable afternoon cloud cover that limits radiative warming. This positions the 21 °C outcome as the market leader at 33.5 % implied probability, while nearby 20 °C and 22 °C shares reflect the narrow spread between model runs. Key variables include Black Sea sea-surface temperatures sustaining mild advection, possible brief showers that could cap the peak, and urban heat-island effects that occasionally add 1 °C locally. Historical May climatology shows daily maxima averaging 20–22 °C, so the current distribution accurately captures the genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of tomorrow’s official Turkish State Meteorological Service verification.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 17?
21°C 34%
20°C 21%
22°C 21%
19°C 7.0%
BAGO
BAGO
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
7%
20°C
21%
21°C
34%
22°C
21%
23°C
7%
24°C or higher
5%
21°C 34%
20°C 21%
22°C 21%
19°C 7.0%
BAGO
BAGO
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
$552 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$411 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$838 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$914 Vol.
1%
18°C
$1,559 Vol.
2%
19°C
$1,513 Vol.
7%
20°C
$510 Vol.
21%
21°C
$91 Vol.
34%
22°C
$384 Vol.
21%
23°C
$1,080 Vol.
7%
24°C or higher
$1,121 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models place Istanbul’s May 17 high near 21 °C amid moderate northerly flow off the Black Sea and variable afternoon cloud cover that limits radiative warming. This positions the 21 °C outcome as the market leader at 33.5 % implied probability, while nearby 20 °C and 22 °C shares reflect the narrow spread between model runs. Key variables include Black Sea sea-surface temperatures sustaining mild advection, possible brief showers that could cap the peak, and urban heat-island effects that occasionally add 1 °C locally. Historical May climatology shows daily maxima averaging 20–22 °C, so the current distribution accurately captures the genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of tomorrow’s official Turkish State Meteorological Service verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Binuksan ang Market: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$8,972Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 17, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models place Istanbul’s May 17 high near 21 °C amid moderate northerly flow off the Black Sea and variable afternoon cloud cover that limits radiative warming. This positions the 21 °C outcome as the market leader at 33.5 % implied probability, while nearby 20 °C and 22 °C shares reflect the narrow spread between model runs. Key variables include Black Sea sea-surface temperatures sustaining mild advection, possible brief showers that could cap the peak, and urban heat-island effects that occasionally add 1 °C locally. Historical May climatology shows daily maxima averaging 20–22 °C, so the current distribution accurately captures the genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of tomorrow’s official Turkish State Meteorological Service verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,972Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 17, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETLatest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models place Istanbul’s May 17 high near 21 °C amid moderate northerly flow off the Black Sea and variable afternoon cloud cover that limits radiative warming. This positions the 21 °C outcome as the market leader at 33.5 % implied probability, while nearby 20 °C and 22 °C shares reflect the narrow spread between model runs. Key variables include Black Sea sea-surface temperatures sustaining mild advection, possible brief showers that could cap the peak, and urban heat-island effects that occasionally add 1 °C locally. Historical May climatology shows daily maxima averaging 20–22 °C, so the current distribution accurately captures the genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of tomorrow’s official Turkish State Meteorological Service verification.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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