**Forecast models currently point to a maximum temperature of 14–16 °C in Wellington on 6 September 2026, aligning closely with the market’s heaviest weighting on 15 °C (51.5 %) and 16 °C (35.5 %).** Early September marks the start of spring in the Southern Hemisphere, when Wellington’s climatological daytime highs average near 14–15 °C. Recent northwest airflow has kept conditions mild, with observed highs on 4 September reaching 14–16 °C under clearing skies. Ensemble guidance shows this milder regime persisting into the weekend before a front and southerly change arrive, bringing increased cloud cover, showers, and a modest cooling effect that caps the peak near 14–15 °C. Strong northwesterlies ahead of the change can briefly enhance mixing and allow brief warmer spells, supporting the secondary probability on 16 °C, while the risk of earlier or stronger southerly flow keeps 14 °C in play. Official MetService and international model runs issued in the past 48 hours show tight clustering around these values, with limited spread that explains the low odds assigned to extremes above 17 °C or below 13 °C. Traders are therefore pricing the most likely resolution near the current forecast consensus, with any significant model shift in the next 24–48 hours—particularly regarding the timing of the southerly change—likely to move the implied probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Wellington on September 6?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 6?
15°C 52%
16°C 36%
14°C 15%
17°C 6%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 6, 2026
9°C or below
1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
2%
14°C
15%
15°C
52%
16°C
36%
17°C
6%
18°C
3%
19°C or higher
3%
15°C 52%
16°C 36%
14°C 15%
17°C 6%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 6, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
10°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$18 Vol.
1%
12°C
$5 Vol.
2%
13°C
$40 Vol.
2%
14°C
$390 Vol.
15%
15°C
$219 Vol.
52%
16°C
$385 Vol.
36%
17°C
$30 Vol.
6%
18°C
$0 Vol.
3%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models currently point to a maximum temperature of 14–16 °C in Wellington on 6 September 2026, aligning closely with the market’s heaviest weighting on 15 °C (51.5 %) and 16 °C (35.5 %).**
Early September marks the start of spring in the Southern Hemisphere, when Wellington’s climatological daytime highs average near 14–15 °C. Recent northwest airflow has kept conditions mild, with observed highs on 4 September reaching 14–16 °C under clearing skies. Ensemble guidance shows this milder regime persisting into the weekend before a front and southerly change arrive, bringing increased cloud cover, showers, and a modest cooling effect that caps the peak near 14–15 °C.
Strong northwesterlies ahead of the change can briefly enhance mixing and allow brief warmer spells, supporting the secondary probability on 16 °C, while the risk of earlier or stronger southerly flow keeps 14 °C in play. Official MetService and international model runs issued in the past 48 hours show tight clustering around these values, with limited spread that explains the low odds assigned to extremes above 17 °C or below 13 °C.
Traders are therefore pricing the most likely resolution near the current forecast consensus, with any significant model shift in the next 24–48 hours—particularly regarding the timing of the southerly change—likely to move the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,087Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 6, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models currently point to a maximum temperature of 14–16 °C in Wellington on 6 September 2026, aligning closely with the market’s heaviest weighting on 15 °C (51.5 %) and 16 °C (35.5 %).**
Early September marks the start of spring in the Southern Hemisphere, when Wellington’s climatological daytime highs average near 14–15 °C. Recent northwest airflow has kept conditions mild, with observed highs on 4 September reaching 14–16 °C under clearing skies. Ensemble guidance shows this milder regime persisting into the weekend before a front and southerly change arrive, bringing increased cloud cover, showers, and a modest cooling effect that caps the peak near 14–15 °C.
Strong northwesterlies ahead of the change can briefly enhance mixing and allow brief warmer spells, supporting the secondary probability on 16 °C, while the risk of earlier or stronger southerly flow keeps 14 °C in play. Official MetService and international model runs issued in the past 48 hours show tight clustering around these values, with limited spread that explains the low odds assigned to extremes above 17 °C or below 13 °C.
Traders are therefore pricing the most likely resolution near the current forecast consensus, with any significant model shift in the next 24–48 hours—particularly regarding the timing of the southerly change—likely to move the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,087Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 6, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models currently point to a maximum temperature of 14–16 °C in Wellington on 6 September 2026, aligning closely with the market’s heaviest weighting on 15 °C (51.5 %) and 16 °C (35.5 %).** Early September marks the start of spring in the Southern Hemisphere, when Wellington’s climatological daytime highs average near 14–15 °C. Recent northwest airflow has kept conditions mild, with observed highs on 4 September reaching 14–16 °C under clearing skies. Ensemble guidance shows this milder regime persisting into the weekend before a front and southerly change arrive, bringing increased cloud cover, showers, and a modest cooling effect that caps the peak near 14–15 °C. Strong northwesterlies ahead of the change can briefly enhance mixing and allow brief warmer spells, supporting the secondary probability on 16 °C, while the risk of earlier or stronger southerly flow keeps 14 °C in play. Official MetService and international model runs issued in the past 48 hours show tight clustering around these values, with limited spread that explains the low odds assigned to extremes above 17 °C or below 13 °C. Traders are therefore pricing the most likely resolution near the current forecast consensus, with any significant model shift in the next 24–48 hours—particularly regarding the timing of the southerly change—likely to move the implied probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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