**Geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea, driven by Houthi threats and attacks amid the broader 2026 Iran-related conflict, remain the dominant factor suppressing vessel transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Renewed Houthi maritime embargoes targeting Saudi-linked shipping (announced around July 20), combined with missile strikes on vessels—including a reported attack killing six people in mid-August—have prompted rerouting, higher war-risk insurance premiums, and cautious carrier behavior. These developments pushed daily commodity vessel crossings down sharply from pre-escalation levels, with recent readings showing 15–40 transits per day (e.g., lows near 15–20 in late July and early August, recovering modestly to 31–40 by early-to-mid August). This risk environment has produced a market-implied consensus favoring subdued weekly volumes. The leading <180 outcome (46% implied probability) and 180–199 bin (35%) reflect trader pricing of persistent disruptions, where average daily traffic stays below roughly 28–29 vessels—consistent with post-embargo data and ongoing avoidance of the chokepoint. Higher bins (200–219 at 6.7%, 220+ at 11%) price in only a limited rebound scenario, which would require rapid de-escalation or successful protection measures such as the newly formed maritime coalition. Upcoming catalysts include any further Houthi statements, U.S.-Iran diplomatic signals, or visible shifts in routing data that could alter the near-term volume trajectory before full week resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
<180 46%
180-199 35%
220+ 12%
200-219 9.9%
$11,906 Vol.
$11,906 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
<180
46%
180-199
35%
200-219
7%
220+
11%
<180 46%
180-199 35%
220+ 12%
200-219 9.9%
$11,906 Vol.
$11,906 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
<180
$5,934 Vol.
46%
180-199
$1,972 Vol.
35%
200-219
$749 Vol.
7%
220+
$3,251 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea, driven by Houthi threats and attacks amid the broader 2026 Iran-related conflict, remain the dominant factor suppressing vessel transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Renewed Houthi maritime embargoes targeting Saudi-linked shipping (announced around July 20), combined with missile strikes on vessels—including a reported attack killing six people in mid-August—have prompted rerouting, higher war-risk insurance premiums, and cautious carrier behavior. These developments pushed daily commodity vessel crossings down sharply from pre-escalation levels, with recent readings showing 15–40 transits per day (e.g., lows near 15–20 in late July and early August, recovering modestly to 31–40 by early-to-mid August).
This risk environment has produced a market-implied consensus favoring subdued weekly volumes. The leading <180 outcome (46% implied probability) and 180–199 bin (35%) reflect trader pricing of persistent disruptions, where average daily traffic stays below roughly 28–29 vessels—consistent with post-embargo data and ongoing avoidance of the chokepoint. Higher bins (200–219 at 6.7%, 220+ at 11%) price in only a limited rebound scenario, which would require rapid de-escalation or successful protection measures such as the newly formed maritime coalition.
Upcoming catalysts include any further Houthi statements, U.S.-Iran diplomatic signals, or visible shifts in routing data that could alter the near-term volume trajectory before full week resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$11,906Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 16, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea, driven by Houthi threats and attacks amid the broader 2026 Iran-related conflict, remain the dominant factor suppressing vessel transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Renewed Houthi maritime embargoes targeting Saudi-linked shipping (announced around July 20), combined with missile strikes on vessels—including a reported attack killing six people in mid-August—have prompted rerouting, higher war-risk insurance premiums, and cautious carrier behavior. These developments pushed daily commodity vessel crossings down sharply from pre-escalation levels, with recent readings showing 15–40 transits per day (e.g., lows near 15–20 in late July and early August, recovering modestly to 31–40 by early-to-mid August).
This risk environment has produced a market-implied consensus favoring subdued weekly volumes. The leading <180 outcome (46% implied probability) and 180–199 bin (35%) reflect trader pricing of persistent disruptions, where average daily traffic stays below roughly 28–29 vessels—consistent with post-embargo data and ongoing avoidance of the chokepoint. Higher bins (200–219 at 6.7%, 220+ at 11%) price in only a limited rebound scenario, which would require rapid de-escalation or successful protection measures such as the newly formed maritime coalition.
Upcoming catalysts include any further Houthi statements, U.S.-Iran diplomatic signals, or visible shifts in routing data that could alter the near-term volume trajectory before full week resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$11,906Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 16, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea, driven by Houthi threats and attacks amid the broader 2026 Iran-related conflict, remain the dominant factor suppressing vessel transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Renewed Houthi maritime embargoes targeting Saudi-linked shipping (announced around July 20), combined with missile strikes on vessels—including a reported attack killing six people in mid-August—have prompted rerouting, higher war-risk insurance premiums, and cautious carrier behavior. These developments pushed daily commodity vessel crossings down sharply from pre-escalation levels, with recent readings showing 15–40 transits per day (e.g., lows near 15–20 in late July and early August, recovering modestly to 31–40 by early-to-mid August). This risk environment has produced a market-implied consensus favoring subdued weekly volumes. The leading <180 outcome (46% implied probability) and 180–199 bin (35%) reflect trader pricing of persistent disruptions, where average daily traffic stays below roughly 28–29 vessels—consistent with post-embargo data and ongoing avoidance of the chokepoint. Higher bins (200–219 at 6.7%, 220+ at 11%) price in only a limited rebound scenario, which would require rapid de-escalation or successful protection measures such as the newly formed maritime coalition. Upcoming catalysts include any further Houthi statements, U.S.-Iran diplomatic signals, or visible shifts in routing data that could alter the near-term volume trajectory before full week resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong