Recent April CPI data, which rose 0.6 percent month-over-month and accelerated to 3.8 percent year-over-year—the highest annual pace since May 2023—has anchored trader expectations for the May print near 0.5–0.6 percent. Persistent energy price pressures stemming from the Iran-related supply shock continue to elevate headline readings, while core components have shown modest moderation. With implied probabilities tightly clustered at 37.5 percent for 0.5 percent and 30.5 percent for 0.6 percent, market participants are weighing whether fuel-cost pass-through will sustain momentum or whether seasonal and shelter trends will pull the outcome lower. Upcoming crude-oil trajectories and any early signals from producer-price data remain key swing factors ahead of the mid-June release.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update0.6% 42%
0.5% 36%
0.4% 13%
0.7% 11%
≤0.1%
4%
0.2%
7%
0.3%
9%
0.4%
13%
0.5%
36%
0.6%
39%
0.7%
11%
0.8%
5%
≥0.9%
7%
0.6% 42%
0.5% 36%
0.4% 13%
0.7% 11%
≤0.1%
4%
0.2%
7%
0.3%
9%
0.4%
13%
0.5%
36%
0.6%
39%
0.7%
11%
0.8%
5%
≥0.9%
7%
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Binuksan ang Market: May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April CPI data, which rose 0.6 percent month-over-month and accelerated to 3.8 percent year-over-year—the highest annual pace since May 2023—has anchored trader expectations for the May print near 0.5–0.6 percent. Persistent energy price pressures stemming from the Iran-related supply shock continue to elevate headline readings, while core components have shown modest moderation. With implied probabilities tightly clustered at 37.5 percent for 0.5 percent and 30.5 percent for 0.6 percent, market participants are weighing whether fuel-cost pass-through will sustain momentum or whether seasonal and shelter trends will pull the outcome lower. Upcoming crude-oil trajectories and any early signals from producer-price data remain key swing factors ahead of the mid-June release.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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