Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s public rejection of resignation demands has anchored trader expectations that he will remain in office through June 30. In April interviews with U.S. outlets, he stated that stepping down “is not part of our vocabulary,” directly addressing reported U.S. conditions for negotiations. Subsequent appearances, including a major address marking the 65th anniversary of Cuba’s socialist declaration, reinforced continuity in leadership amid external pressure. No internal Communist Party moves, legislative actions, or succession signals have emerged to alter this positioning. With the five-year term structure and institutional controls intact, the current implied probability reflects the absence of verifiable catalysts for an abrupt exit in the narrow remaining window.