**Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 94.5% implied probability for a new pandemic declaration by WHO in 2026**, reflecting the absence of any novel pathogen achieving sustained global human-to-human transmission meeting pandemic criteria. The primary driver is the ongoing Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, declared a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) in May 2026 with over 4,500 confirmed cases and 2,100+ deaths by mid-August. Despite rapid expansion within affected provinces and a high case fatality ratio near 47%, international spread remains limited to sporadic imported cases without sustained chains outside the region, per WHO and CDC assessments. COVID-19 has transitioned to endemic circulation with low test positivity rates, while other threats like measles or mpox represent localized or previously managed outbreaks. Realistic challenges include potential intensification of the Bundibugyo event or emergence of a new variant with enhanced transmissibility, though current surveillance data and historical patterns of infrequent pandemic emergence underpin the strong market positioning.