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Politika·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Politika·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 50%

Petro - Colombia President 25%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.2%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.1%

Polymarket

$367,449 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM 50%

Petro - Colombia President 25%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.2%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.1%

Polymarket

$367,449 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM

$21,885 Vol.

50%

Petro - Colombia President

$20,449 Vol.

25%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$12,135 Vol.

8%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$21,799 Vol.

2%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,621 Vol.

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$16,154 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$17,125 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$16,116 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,679 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$19,128 Vol.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,495 Vol.

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,743 Vol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$13,158 Vol.

<1%

Macron - France President

$12,204 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,266 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,850 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,675 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,418 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,264 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,504 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,235 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,930 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,335 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,281 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Keir Starmer faces the greatest immediate risk of early departure among listed leaders, driven by recent Labour Party setbacks in local elections, multiple cabinet resignations, and open calls from dozens of MPs for a leadership transition timeline. These developments have intensified scrutiny of his governance amid low approval ratings and internal party divisions, positioning him as the frontrunner in trader assessments of removal before 2027. Gustavo Petro ranks second as Colombia's presidential term concludes in 2026 following scheduled elections, despite a recent rebound in his approval ratings near 47 percent. Other figures such as Miguel Díaz-Canel, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Claudia Sheinbaum register lower probabilities due to more stable institutional positions or longer expected tenures, with limited recent catalysts to alter their standing in the market's implied consensus.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$367,449
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Keir Starmer faces the greatest immediate risk of early departure among listed leaders, driven by recent Labour Party setbacks in local elections, multiple cabinet resignations, and open calls from dozens of MPs for a leadership transition timeline. These developments have intensified scrutiny of his governance amid low approval ratings and internal party divisions, positioning him as the frontrunner in trader assessments of removal before 2027. Gustavo Petro ranks second as Colombia's presidential term concludes in 2026 following scheduled elections, despite a recent rebound in his approval ratings near 47 percent. Other figures such as Miguel Díaz-Canel, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Claudia Sheinbaum register lower probabilities due to more stable institutional positions or longer expected tenures, with limited recent catalysts to alter their standing in the market's implied consensus.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$367,449
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 24 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Starmer - UK PM" sa 50%, sinusundan ng "Petro - Colombia President" sa 25%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 50¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 50% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" ay naka-generate ng $367.4K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Apr 27, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)," i-browse ang 24 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" ay "Starmer - UK PM" sa 50%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 50% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Petro - Colombia President" sa 25%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.