JD Vance leads the 2028 presidential nomination markets at 20.1 percent amid an open field created by President Donald Trump’s term limit, bolstered by his vice-presidential role, strong early primary polling around 39 percent among Republicans, and positioning as a potential successor at recent party events. Democratic contenders remain fragmented, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 13.2 percent, Jon Ossoff at 10.3 percent, Gavin Newsom at 8.1 percent, and Kamala Harris at 4.5 percent reflecting name recognition and ideological splits rather than settled support. November 2026 midterms, primary polling trends, and any formal declarations could shift probabilities, as prediction markets currently capture trader consensus on visibility and base consolidation more than finalized general-election matchups.