As of early October 2026, the 93.8% implied probability against invocation reflects the absence of recent escalatory statements, troop deployments, or official notifications tied to Yemen operations before month-end. U.S. responses to Houthi activity have continued under existing authorities without signals of new military commitments requiring congressional notification under the War Powers Resolution. Trader positioning aligns with the lack of diplomatic summits, intelligence assessments, or legislative activity indicating imminent action, amid focus on other foreign policy priorities. Historical patterns show such invocations typically follow clear public buildup, which remains absent here, leaving only late-breaking events as potential catalysts within the resolution window.