Recent Nuclear Regulatory Commission actions, including the March 2026 finalization of the technology-inclusive Part 53 framework and a March 9 construction permit for TerraPower’s sodium-cooled reactor in Wyoming, have shortened some review timelines. However, even these streamlined pathways require sequential safety evaluations, environmental reviews, and operating license applications that typically extend well beyond 2026 for new designs. Most pending projects, such as microreactor proposals under the emerging Part 57 rule, remain in early pre-application stages with comment periods extending into mid-2026 and first full commercial operating licenses expected no earlier than 2028. Traders therefore assign a 70.5 percent probability to “No,” reflecting realistic gaps between policy reforms and actual license issuance for any brand-new reactor this calendar year.