Recent inflation readings near 3.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.50%-3.75% through the July FOMC meeting, with three officials dissenting toward a hike. Traders assign the highest probability to 3.75% by year-end 2026 because persistent price pressures tied to energy costs have reduced expectations for cuts while the recent pace of moderation and weaker employment data limit support for aggressive tightening. Upcoming data releases and the September meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution among the 3.5%-4.25% cluster of outcomes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateAno ang magiging rate ng Fed sa pagtatapos ng 2026?
Ano ang magiging rate ng Fed sa pagtatapos ng 2026?
3.75% 45.3%
4.0% 22.7%
4.25% 13.4%
3.5% 8.5%
$6,754,081 Vol.
$6,754,081 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
1%
3.25%
1%
3.5%
9%
3.75%
45%
4.0%
23%
4.25%
13%
≥ 4.5%
6%
3.75% 45.3%
4.0% 22.7%
4.25% 13.4%
3.5% 8.5%
$6,754,081 Vol.
$6,754,081 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1.0%
$242,662 Vol.
<1%
1.25
$142,459 Vol.
1%
1.5%
$145,909 Vol.
1%
1.75%
$147,805 Vol.
<1%
2.0%
$262,895 Vol.
<1%
2.25%
$87,644 Vol.
<1%
2.5%
$172,865 Vol.
1%
2.75%
$60,980 Vol.
1%
3.0%
$488,613 Vol.
1%
3.25%
$64,233 Vol.
1%
3.5%
$202,092 Vol.
9%
3.75%
$531,835 Vol.
45%
4.0%
$1,368,889 Vol.
23%
4.25%
$427,264 Vol.
13%
≥ 4.5%
$2,407,936 Vol.
6%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent inflation readings near 3.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.50%-3.75% through the July FOMC meeting, with three officials dissenting toward a hike. Traders assign the highest probability to 3.75% by year-end 2026 because persistent price pressures tied to energy costs have reduced expectations for cuts while the recent pace of moderation and weaker employment data limit support for aggressive tightening. Upcoming data releases and the September meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution among the 3.5%-4.25% cluster of outcomes.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$6,754,081Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent inflation readings near 3.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.50%-3.75% through the July FOMC meeting, with three officials dissenting toward a hike. Traders assign the highest probability to 3.75% by year-end 2026 because persistent price pressures tied to energy costs have reduced expectations for cuts while the recent pace of moderation and weaker employment data limit support for aggressive tightening. Upcoming data releases and the September meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution among the 3.5%-4.25% cluster of outcomes.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,754,081Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent inflation readings near 3.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.50%-3.75% through the July FOMC meeting, with three officials dissenting toward a hike. Traders assign the highest probability to 3.75% by year-end 2026 because persistent price pressures tied to energy costs have reduced expectations for cuts while the recent pace of moderation and weaker employment data limit support for aggressive tightening. Upcoming data releases and the September meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution among the 3.5%-4.25% cluster of outcomes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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