Traders assign a 99.2% probability that China will not launch an invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of visible large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for such an operation in the narrow remaining window. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for unification and continue prioritizing coercive gray-zone tactics, including routine PLA air and naval activity around the island plus limited exercises. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang drills have tested reservist mobilization, arms relocation, and anti-blockade measures without triggering escalatory responses. Structural barriers such as expected intervention costs and incomplete readiness further anchor the current trader consensus. Late shifts could still stem from miscalculation during drills or sudden policy changes, though these face steep timing and operational constraints before the resolution date.