Ongoing tensions from Russia's war in Ukraine, including sustained G7 sanctions and coordinated support for Kyiv, underpin the 97% implied probability against rejoining before 2027. G7 leaders have reaffirmed exclusion at recent summits while strengthening economic measures targeting Russian energy and finance sectors, and European members have resisted U.S. efforts to normalize Moscow's role in parallel forums like the G20. Russian officials, including President Putin, have repeatedly stated no interest in returning, citing the group's reduced global economic weight relative to the G20. Realistic shifts could stem from a comprehensive Ukraine settlement or abrupt changes in G7 consensus, though current diplomatic and military conditions make such developments improbable in the timeframe.