US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 special operations raid in Caracas, marking the first such direct apprehension of a sitting head of state in decades. No comparable operations have occurred in the subsequent eight months, and US policy has shifted toward managing the resulting Venezuelan transition under Delcy Rodríguez, regional diplomacy, and domestic priorities ahead of the November midterms. Replicating the Maduro action would require similar intelligence, ground presence, and political authorization against another qualifying leader before year-end, factors that remain absent from public reporting or official signals. Traders price the “No” outcome at 94.5% because the event’s rarity, logistical demands, and lack of evident follow-on targets outweigh the precedent set earlier in the year.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
6% tsansa
$82,559 Vol.
$82,559 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% tsansa
$82,559 Vol.
$82,559 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 special operations raid in Caracas, marking the first such direct apprehension of a sitting head of state in decades. No comparable operations have occurred in the subsequent eight months, and US policy has shifted toward managing the resulting Venezuelan transition under Delcy Rodríguez, regional diplomacy, and domestic priorities ahead of the November midterms. Replicating the Maduro action would require similar intelligence, ground presence, and political authorization against another qualifying leader before year-end, factors that remain absent from public reporting or official signals. Traders price the “No” outcome at 94.5% because the event’s rarity, logistical demands, and lack of evident follow-on targets outweigh the precedent set earlier in the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$82,559Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 special operations raid in Caracas, marking the first such direct apprehension of a sitting head of state in decades. No comparable operations have occurred in the subsequent eight months, and US policy has shifted toward managing the resulting Venezuelan transition under Delcy Rodríguez, regional diplomacy, and domestic priorities ahead of the November midterms. Replicating the Maduro action would require similar intelligence, ground presence, and political authorization against another qualifying leader before year-end, factors that remain absent from public reporting or official signals. Traders price the “No” outcome at 94.5% because the event’s rarity, logistical demands, and lack of evident follow-on targets outweigh the precedent set earlier in the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$82,559Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 special operations raid in Caracas, marking the first such direct apprehension of a sitting head of state in decades. No comparable operations have occurred in the subsequent eight months, and US policy has shifted toward managing the resulting Venezuelan transition under Delcy Rodríguez, regional diplomacy, and domestic priorities ahead of the November midterms. Replicating the Maduro action would require similar intelligence, ground presence, and political authorization against another qualifying leader before year-end, factors that remain absent from public reporting or official signals. Traders price the “No” outcome at 94.5% because the event’s rarity, logistical demands, and lack of evident follow-on targets outweigh the precedent set earlier in the year.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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