Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite repeated petitions, including recent filings against Alexandre de Moraes and recommendations from the 2026 Banco Master CPI targeting Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and others. High procedural thresholds—a two-thirds Senate vote plus leadership gatekeeping—combined with the court’s December 2025 procedural restrictions and the current congressional alignment have kept all complaints from advancing. Traders assign 96.6% probability to no removal by end-2026 because these structural barriers have held through prior political pressure. A decisive post-election Senate composition change or an acute institutional crisis before year-end remain the primary scenarios that could still shift the outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено3% шанс
$83,546 Обс.
$83,546 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
3% шанс
$83,546 Обс.
$83,546 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite repeated petitions, including recent filings against Alexandre de Moraes and recommendations from the 2026 Banco Master CPI targeting Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and others. High procedural thresholds—a two-thirds Senate vote plus leadership gatekeeping—combined with the court’s December 2025 procedural restrictions and the current congressional alignment have kept all complaints from advancing. Traders assign 96.6% probability to no removal by end-2026 because these structural barriers have held through prior political pressure. A decisive post-election Senate composition change or an acute institutional crisis before year-end remain the primary scenarios that could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Обсяг
$83,546Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite repeated petitions, including recent filings against Alexandre de Moraes and recommendations from the 2026 Banco Master CPI targeting Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and others. High procedural thresholds—a two-thirds Senate vote plus leadership gatekeeping—combined with the court’s December 2025 procedural restrictions and the current congressional alignment have kept all complaints from advancing. Traders assign 96.6% probability to no removal by end-2026 because these structural barriers have held through prior political pressure. A decisive post-election Senate composition change or an acute institutional crisis before year-end remain the primary scenarios that could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$83,546Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite repeated petitions, including recent filings against Alexandre de Moraes and recommendations from the 2026 Banco Master CPI targeting Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and others. High procedural thresholds—a two-thirds Senate vote plus leadership gatekeeping—combined with the court’s December 2025 procedural restrictions and the current congressional alignment have kept all complaints from advancing. Traders assign 96.6% probability to no removal by end-2026 because these structural barriers have held through prior political pressure. A decisive post-election Senate composition change or an acute institutional crisis before year-end remain the primary scenarios that could still shift the outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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