Recent Houthi advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of key ports and islands near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, combined with a selective blockade on Saudi-linked vessels, have driven volatility in transits and shaped the current market-implied odds favoring the 25-29 daily average bracket at 52.5%. Weekly counts from late September reached 264–290 vessels, equating to roughly 38–41 per day, yet persistent attacks, pipeline disruptions, and rerouting incentives have kept shorter-term averages closer to the mid-20s amid elevated insurance and escort demands. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether traffic stabilizes above 30 or dips further with any escalation before month-end, as naval operations and carrier routing decisions remain key swing factors.