Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District, a safe Democratic East Bay seat where Kamala Harris won 84.5% in 2024, underpins trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic Party victory. Simon dominates fundraising with over $1.1 million in receipts as of late March, dwarfing challenger Jamie Joyce's minimal activity, following Republican Heath Fulkerson's withdrawal that leaves only Democrats in the June 2 top-two primary. Race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirm Solid/Safe Democratic status, with historical data showing no viable Republican path. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, health events affecting Simon, or an unexpected primary upset allowing a GOP write-in, though such barriers remain formidable ahead of the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-12 House Election Winner
CA-12 House Election Winner
$33,778 Обс.
$33,778 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$33,778 Обс.
$33,778 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$20,165 Обс.
94%
Republican Party
$13,612 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District, a safe Democratic East Bay seat where Kamala Harris won 84.5% in 2024, underpins trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic Party victory. Simon dominates fundraising with over $1.1 million in receipts as of late March, dwarfing challenger Jamie Joyce's minimal activity, following Republican Heath Fulkerson's withdrawal that leaves only Democrats in the June 2 top-two primary. Race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirm Solid/Safe Democratic status, with historical data showing no viable Republican path. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, health events affecting Simon, or an unexpected primary upset allowing a GOP write-in, though such barriers remain formidable ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$33,778Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District, a safe Democratic East Bay seat where Kamala Harris won 84.5% in 2024, underpins trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic Party victory. Simon dominates fundraising with over $1.1 million in receipts as of late March, dwarfing challenger Jamie Joyce's minimal activity, following Republican Heath Fulkerson's withdrawal that leaves only Democrats in the June 2 top-two primary. Race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirm Solid/Safe Democratic status, with historical data showing no viable Republican path. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, health events affecting Simon, or an unexpected primary upset allowing a GOP write-in, though such barriers remain formidable ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$33,778Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District, a safe Democratic East Bay seat where Kamala Harris won 84.5% in 2024, underpins trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic Party victory. Simon dominates fundraising with over $1.1 million in receipts as of late March, dwarfing challenger Jamie Joyce's minimal activity, following Republican Heath Fulkerson's withdrawal that leaves only Democrats in the June 2 top-two primary. Race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirm Solid/Safe Democratic status, with historical data showing no viable Republican path. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, health events affecting Simon, or an unexpected primary upset allowing a GOP write-in, though such barriers remain formidable ahead of the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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