Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray advances to the November 3, 2026 general election against Republican Kevin Lincoln after winning the June 2 primary with 42% of the vote. California's voter-approved redistricting shifted the Central Valley district leftward by adding portions of Stockton, producing a D+6 baseline that favors Democrats. Gray flipped the seat by just 187 votes in 2024 and holds a substantial fundraising edge. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the district's partisan realignment and the incumbent's position despite historical competitiveness in the San Joaquin Valley. Trader consensus assigns Democrats a 90% implied probability of retaining the seat.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-13 House Election Winner
CA-13 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
90%
Republican Party
10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$4,585 Обс.
90%
Republican Party
$4,107 Обс.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray advances to the November 3, 2026 general election against Republican Kevin Lincoln after winning the June 2 primary with 42% of the vote. California's voter-approved redistricting shifted the Central Valley district leftward by adding portions of Stockton, producing a D+6 baseline that favors Democrats. Gray flipped the seat by just 187 votes in 2024 and holds a substantial fundraising edge. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the district's partisan realignment and the incumbent's position despite historical competitiveness in the San Joaquin Valley. Trader consensus assigns Democrats a 90% implied probability of retaining the seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
Обсяг
$8,692Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray advances to the November 3, 2026 general election against Republican Kevin Lincoln after winning the June 2 primary with 42% of the vote. California's voter-approved redistricting shifted the Central Valley district leftward by adding portions of Stockton, producing a D+6 baseline that favors Democrats. Gray flipped the seat by just 187 votes in 2024 and holds a substantial fundraising edge. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the district's partisan realignment and the incumbent's position despite historical competitiveness in the San Joaquin Valley. Trader consensus assigns Democrats a 90% implied probability of retaining the seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$8,692Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray advances to the November 3, 2026 general election against Republican Kevin Lincoln after winning the June 2 primary with 42% of the vote. California's voter-approved redistricting shifted the Central Valley district leftward by adding portions of Stockton, producing a D+6 baseline that favors Democrats. Gray flipped the seat by just 187 votes in 2024 and holds a substantial fundraising edge. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the district's partisan realignment and the incumbent's position despite historical competitiveness in the San Joaquin Valley. Trader consensus assigns Democrats a 90% implied probability of retaining the seat.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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