Doug Ford's unchallenged position as Ontario Progressive Conservative leader underpins the 87% trader consensus that he will remain in place through December 31. After securing a third consecutive majority government in the February 2025 snap election, Ford used the January 2026 party convention to publicly commit to seeking a fourth term, highlighting economic priorities and tariff protections. Recent polls show the PCs holding or competitive at around 39% support despite softening favorability tied to late-April controversies over a proposed private jet purchase. With no active caucus dissent, leadership review mechanisms triggered, or resignation signals emerging, and the next provincial election still years away, traders view continuity as the baseline scenario.