The December 6, 2026, legislative election in Guinea-Bissau occurs under a new constitutional framework approved in the August 2026 referendum, which reduced National People's Assembly seats from 102 to 65 and cut constituencies from 29 to 12 while expanding presidential authority over the prime minister and cabinet. Trader consensus reflects a highly fragmented field shaped by the November 2025 coup that annulled prior results, installed a military transitional government, and prompted opposition boycotts of the referendum. Leading contenders such as Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” and FREPASNA hold narrow edges due to limited established bases and the absence of dominant coalitions, with smaller parties like PT and FLING trailing amid dispersed support. Key differentiators include historical party networks, alignment with transitional authorities, and capacity to mobilize in the streamlined electoral map; consolidation could hinge on late alliances, candidate eligibility under residency rules, or shifts in voter turnout across the 12 constituencies before the vote.