**Recent official forecasts position a 23°C high as the most likely outcome for Amsterdam on July 4, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s 39% implied probability for that bin.** The UK Met Office explicitly projects a daytime maximum of 23°C and overnight low near 17°C, while broader July climatology shows average highs around 22°C. Ensemble guidance from major models supports a narrow range centered on 22–24°C, reflecting typical early-July maritime moderation from North Sea airflow under post-solstice conditions. A late-June heatwave pushed inland temperatures briefly above 35–38°C, but that pattern has eased, with current model consensus indicating cooler, more zonal flow by the holiday weekend. This shift explains why probabilities for 25°C+ remain low (under 10% combined) and why sub-21°C outcomes are discounted. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs, which show limited spread for this short-range event. Key resolution thresholds—maximum temperature recorded at the official KNMI station—will be sensitive to any last-minute adjustments in cloud cover, wind direction, or boundary-layer mixing. Updated ECMWF and KNMI model runs over the next 48 hours represent the primary catalyst likely to move the distribution before markets close.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Amsterdam on July 4?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 4?
23°C 45%
22°C 30%
24°C 16%
21°C 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 4, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
11%
22°C
30%
23°C
45%
24°C
16%
25°C
3%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 45%
22°C 30%
24°C 16%
21°C 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 4, 2026
18°C or below
$5 Обс.
<1%
19°C
$30 Обс.
<1%
20°C
$203 Обс.
1%
21°C
$164 Обс.
11%
22°C
$165 Обс.
30%
23°C
$628 Обс.
45%
24°C
$123 Обс.
16%
25°C
$21 Обс.
3%
26°C
$67 Обс.
1%
27°C
$5 Обс.
<1%
28°C or higher
$10 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts position a 23°C high as the most likely outcome for Amsterdam on July 4, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s 39% implied probability for that bin.** The UK Met Office explicitly projects a daytime maximum of 23°C and overnight low near 17°C, while broader July climatology shows average highs around 22°C. Ensemble guidance from major models supports a narrow range centered on 22–24°C, reflecting typical early-July maritime moderation from North Sea airflow under post-solstice conditions.
A late-June heatwave pushed inland temperatures briefly above 35–38°C, but that pattern has eased, with current model consensus indicating cooler, more zonal flow by the holiday weekend. This shift explains why probabilities for 25°C+ remain low (under 10% combined) and why sub-21°C outcomes are discounted. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs, which show limited spread for this short-range event.
Key resolution thresholds—maximum temperature recorded at the official KNMI station—will be sensitive to any last-minute adjustments in cloud cover, wind direction, or boundary-layer mixing. Updated ECMWF and KNMI model runs over the next 48 hours represent the primary catalyst likely to move the distribution before markets close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,421Дата завершення
Jul 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts position a 23°C high as the most likely outcome for Amsterdam on July 4, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s 39% implied probability for that bin.** The UK Met Office explicitly projects a daytime maximum of 23°C and overnight low near 17°C, while broader July climatology shows average highs around 22°C. Ensemble guidance from major models supports a narrow range centered on 22–24°C, reflecting typical early-July maritime moderation from North Sea airflow under post-solstice conditions.
A late-June heatwave pushed inland temperatures briefly above 35–38°C, but that pattern has eased, with current model consensus indicating cooler, more zonal flow by the holiday weekend. This shift explains why probabilities for 25°C+ remain low (under 10% combined) and why sub-21°C outcomes are discounted. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs, which show limited spread for this short-range event.
Key resolution thresholds—maximum temperature recorded at the official KNMI station—will be sensitive to any last-minute adjustments in cloud cover, wind direction, or boundary-layer mixing. Updated ECMWF and KNMI model runs over the next 48 hours represent the primary catalyst likely to move the distribution before markets close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,421Дата завершення
Jul 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent official forecasts position a 23°C high as the most likely outcome for Amsterdam on July 4, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s 39% implied probability for that bin.** The UK Met Office explicitly projects a daytime maximum of 23°C and overnight low near 17°C, while broader July climatology shows average highs around 22°C. Ensemble guidance from major models supports a narrow range centered on 22–24°C, reflecting typical early-July maritime moderation from North Sea airflow under post-solstice conditions. A late-June heatwave pushed inland temperatures briefly above 35–38°C, but that pattern has eased, with current model consensus indicating cooler, more zonal flow by the holiday weekend. This shift explains why probabilities for 25°C+ remain low (under 10% combined) and why sub-21°C outcomes are discounted. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs, which show limited spread for this short-range event. Key resolution thresholds—maximum temperature recorded at the official KNMI station—will be sensitive to any last-minute adjustments in cloud cover, wind direction, or boundary-layer mixing. Updated ECMWF and KNMI model runs over the next 48 hours represent the primary catalyst likely to move the distribution before markets close.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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