Trader consensus on the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 4 centers on 31°C at 43.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest ensemble model runs from regional meteorological services that project peak readings near that threshold under persistent high-pressure conditions typical of Mediterranean summer. Supporting outcomes at 30°C and 32°C capture remaining spread in forecast guidance, with minimal signals for extremes above 34°C or below 29°C. Historical July baselines around 30–32°C, combined with stable sea-surface temperatures and limited synoptic forcing for intensification, anchor these probabilities. Updated model consensus expected within 48 hours could refine the distribution ahead of the observation window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 4?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 4?
31°C 53%
32°C 26%
30°C 22%
33°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 4, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
22%
31°C
53%
32°C
26%
33°C
4%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 53%
32°C 26%
30°C 22%
33°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 4, 2026
27°C or below
$98 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$198 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$226 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$750 Обс.
22%
31°C
$2,514 Обс.
53%
32°C
$1,196 Обс.
26%
33°C
$126 Обс.
4%
34°C
$309 Обс.
1%
35°C
$279 Обс.
<1%
36°C
$349 Обс.
<1%
37°C or higher
$68 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 4 centers on 31°C at 43.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest ensemble model runs from regional meteorological services that project peak readings near that threshold under persistent high-pressure conditions typical of Mediterranean summer. Supporting outcomes at 30°C and 32°C capture remaining spread in forecast guidance, with minimal signals for extremes above 34°C or below 29°C. Historical July baselines around 30–32°C, combined with stable sea-surface temperatures and limited synoptic forcing for intensification, anchor these probabilities. Updated model consensus expected within 48 hours could refine the distribution ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$6,112Дата завершення
Jul 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 4 centers on 31°C at 43.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest ensemble model runs from regional meteorological services that project peak readings near that threshold under persistent high-pressure conditions typical of Mediterranean summer. Supporting outcomes at 30°C and 32°C capture remaining spread in forecast guidance, with minimal signals for extremes above 34°C or below 29°C. Historical July baselines around 30–32°C, combined with stable sea-surface temperatures and limited synoptic forcing for intensification, anchor these probabilities. Updated model consensus expected within 48 hours could refine the distribution ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$6,112Дата завершення
Jul 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 4 centers on 31°C at 43.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest ensemble model runs from regional meteorological services that project peak readings near that threshold under persistent high-pressure conditions typical of Mediterranean summer. Supporting outcomes at 30°C and 32°C capture remaining spread in forecast guidance, with minimal signals for extremes above 34°C or below 29°C. Historical July baselines around 30–32°C, combined with stable sea-surface temperatures and limited synoptic forcing for intensification, anchor these probabilities. Updated model consensus expected within 48 hours could refine the distribution ahead of the observation window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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