Current forecasts for Jeddah on July 4 center on a maximum near 37–38 °C under sunny conditions with moderate northwesterly flow, aligning with the tightly bunched market probabilities around those levels. The spread across 37 °C, 38 °C, and 39 °C+ reflects typical ensemble-model dispersion for coastal Red Sea sites, where sea-breeze timing, boundary-layer moisture, and subtle shifts in the subtropical ridge can alter peak readings by 1–2 °C. Historical July climatology shows daily highs averaging 37 °C with occasional excursions above 40 °C when regional subsidence strengthens; recent model runs and satellite observations indicate stable high pressure without strong thermal anomalies, keeping the 39 °C threshold plausible but not favored. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance and next model cycles will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.