Current medium-range forecasts from the UK Met Office and BBC place Madrid’s July 4 maximum near 37–38 °C under a building high-pressure ridge that favors clear skies, strong July insolation, and limited mixing. These conditions, plus the city’s urban heat-island effect, support the market’s near-even split between 38 °C (34 %) and 39 °C (37.5 %). Subtle ensemble spread in boundary-layer temperature and any late-day advection keeps 37 °C and 40 °C as viable tails. Recent June heatwave episodes showed how quickly similar patterns can push peaks 1–2 °C higher, explaining trader focus on the narrow 38–39 °C window two days before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on July 4?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 4?
38°C 50%
39°C 28%
37°C 12%
40°C 7.9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 4, 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
1%
36°C
4%
37°C
12%
38°C
50%
39°C
28%
40°C
8%
41°C
2%
42°C
1%
43°C or higher
<1%
38°C 50%
39°C 28%
37°C 12%
40°C 7.9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 4, 2026
33°C or below
$549 Обс.
<1%
34°C
$174 Обс.
1%
35°C
$47 Обс.
1%
36°C
$580 Обс.
4%
37°C
$395 Обс.
12%
38°C
$597 Обс.
50%
39°C
$663 Обс.
28%
40°C
$67 Обс.
8%
41°C
$20 Обс.
2%
42°C
$140 Обс.
1%
43°C or higher
$268 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current medium-range forecasts from the UK Met Office and BBC place Madrid’s July 4 maximum near 37–38 °C under a building high-pressure ridge that favors clear skies, strong July insolation, and limited mixing. These conditions, plus the city’s urban heat-island effect, support the market’s near-even split between 38 °C (34 %) and 39 °C (37.5 %). Subtle ensemble spread in boundary-layer temperature and any late-day advection keeps 37 °C and 40 °C as viable tails. Recent June heatwave episodes showed how quickly similar patterns can push peaks 1–2 °C higher, explaining trader focus on the narrow 38–39 °C window two days before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$3,499Дата завершення
Jul 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current medium-range forecasts from the UK Met Office and BBC place Madrid’s July 4 maximum near 37–38 °C under a building high-pressure ridge that favors clear skies, strong July insolation, and limited mixing. These conditions, plus the city’s urban heat-island effect, support the market’s near-even split between 38 °C (34 %) and 39 °C (37.5 %). Subtle ensemble spread in boundary-layer temperature and any late-day advection keeps 37 °C and 40 °C as viable tails. Recent June heatwave episodes showed how quickly similar patterns can push peaks 1–2 °C higher, explaining trader focus on the narrow 38–39 °C window two days before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$3,499Дата завершення
Jul 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current medium-range forecasts from the UK Met Office and BBC place Madrid’s July 4 maximum near 37–38 °C under a building high-pressure ridge that favors clear skies, strong July insolation, and limited mixing. These conditions, plus the city’s urban heat-island effect, support the market’s near-even split between 38 °C (34 %) and 39 °C (37.5 %). Subtle ensemble spread in boundary-layer temperature and any late-day advection keeps 37 °C and 40 °C as viable tails. Recent June heatwave episodes showed how quickly similar patterns can push peaks 1–2 °C higher, explaining trader focus on the narrow 38–39 °C window two days before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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