Current numerical weather prediction models from agencies including AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS converge on a Madrid maximum of 34–36 °C for July 16, 2026, with limited spread across ensemble runs. This consensus, reflecting persistent high-pressure ridging and minimal Atlantic moisture advection, underpins the market-implied probabilities favoring 35 °C and 36 °C. Typical July climatology shows mean highs near 32–33 °C, so the slight elevation above baseline stems from recent model guidance showing subdued wind speeds and clear skies that limit afternoon mixing and cooling. Updated runs expected over the next 48 hours, plus any revisions to boundary-layer moisture or surface heating, remain the primary variables that could shift trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on July 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 16?
35°C 45%
36°C 35%
34°C 14%
37°C 5.1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 16, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
2%
34°C
14%
35°C
45%
36°C
35%
37°C
5%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
35°C 45%
36°C 35%
34°C 14%
37°C 5.1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 16, 2026
30°C or below
$692 Обс.
<1%
31°C
$381 Обс.
<1%
32°C
$587 Обс.
1%
33°C
$563 Обс.
2%
34°C
$651 Обс.
14%
35°C
$1,036 Обс.
45%
36°C
$1,016 Обс.
35%
37°C
$402 Обс.
5%
38°C
$357 Обс.
1%
39°C
$421 Обс.
<1%
40°C or higher
$386 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from agencies including AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS converge on a Madrid maximum of 34–36 °C for July 16, 2026, with limited spread across ensemble runs. This consensus, reflecting persistent high-pressure ridging and minimal Atlantic moisture advection, underpins the market-implied probabilities favoring 35 °C and 36 °C. Typical July climatology shows mean highs near 32–33 °C, so the slight elevation above baseline stems from recent model guidance showing subdued wind speeds and clear skies that limit afternoon mixing and cooling. Updated runs expected over the next 48 hours, plus any revisions to boundary-layer moisture or surface heating, remain the primary variables that could shift trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 14, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Обсяг
$6,491Дата завершення
Jul 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 14, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from agencies including AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS converge on a Madrid maximum of 34–36 °C for July 16, 2026, with limited spread across ensemble runs. This consensus, reflecting persistent high-pressure ridging and minimal Atlantic moisture advection, underpins the market-implied probabilities favoring 35 °C and 36 °C. Typical July climatology shows mean highs near 32–33 °C, so the slight elevation above baseline stems from recent model guidance showing subdued wind speeds and clear skies that limit afternoon mixing and cooling. Updated runs expected over the next 48 hours, plus any revisions to boundary-layer moisture or surface heating, remain the primary variables that could shift trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$6,491Дата завершення
Jul 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 14, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction models from agencies including AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS converge on a Madrid maximum of 34–36 °C for July 16, 2026, with limited spread across ensemble runs. This consensus, reflecting persistent high-pressure ridging and minimal Atlantic moisture advection, underpins the market-implied probabilities favoring 35 °C and 36 °C. Typical July climatology shows mean highs near 32–33 °C, so the slight elevation above baseline stems from recent model guidance showing subdued wind speeds and clear skies that limit afternoon mixing and cooling. Updated runs expected over the next 48 hours, plus any revisions to boundary-layer moisture or surface heating, remain the primary variables that could shift trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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