Latest ensemble guidance from NOAA and the National Weather Service positions 80–81 °F as the most likely daily maximum for New York City on August 24, consistent with the 49.5 % market-implied probability and the secondary 78–79 °F bucket. Persistent high pressure and weak southerly flow are expected to limit afternoon mixing while keeping dew points moderate, producing temperatures close to the 30-year late-August climatological normal of 82 °F. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs show only minor spread around this value, with limited potential for either stronger onshore flow or clearer skies that could push readings into the mid-80s. Updated model cycles and the 00Z–12Z short-range verification tomorrow morning will be the next data points likely to refine trader positioning before the market resolves.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in NYC on August 24?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 24?
80-81°F 50%
78-79°F 36%
82-83°F 12%
84-85°F 3%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 24, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
36%
80-81°F
50%
82-83°F
12%
84-85°F
3%
86°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 50%
78-79°F 36%
82-83°F 12%
84-85°F 3%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 24, 2026
67°F or below
$78 Обс.
<1%
68-69°F
$78 Обс.
<1%
70-71°F
$78 Обс.
<1%
72-73°F
$334 Обс.
<1%
74-75°F
$527 Обс.
1%
76-77°F
$1,891 Обс.
2%
78-79°F
$1,216 Обс.
36%
80-81°F
$3,199 Обс.
50%
82-83°F
$1,030 Обс.
12%
84-85°F
$281 Обс.
3%
86°F or higher
$428 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble guidance from NOAA and the National Weather Service positions 80–81 °F as the most likely daily maximum for New York City on August 24, consistent with the 49.5 % market-implied probability and the secondary 78–79 °F bucket. Persistent high pressure and weak southerly flow are expected to limit afternoon mixing while keeping dew points moderate, producing temperatures close to the 30-year late-August climatological normal of 82 °F. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs show only minor spread around this value, with limited potential for either stronger onshore flow or clearer skies that could push readings into the mid-80s. Updated model cycles and the 00Z–12Z short-range verification tomorrow morning will be the next data points likely to refine trader positioning before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$9,132Дата завершення
Aug 24, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble guidance from NOAA and the National Weather Service positions 80–81 °F as the most likely daily maximum for New York City on August 24, consistent with the 49.5 % market-implied probability and the secondary 78–79 °F bucket. Persistent high pressure and weak southerly flow are expected to limit afternoon mixing while keeping dew points moderate, producing temperatures close to the 30-year late-August climatological normal of 82 °F. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs show only minor spread around this value, with limited potential for either stronger onshore flow or clearer skies that could push readings into the mid-80s. Updated model cycles and the 00Z–12Z short-range verification tomorrow morning will be the next data points likely to refine trader positioning before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$9,132Дата завершення
Aug 24, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble guidance from NOAA and the National Weather Service positions 80–81 °F as the most likely daily maximum for New York City on August 24, consistent with the 49.5 % market-implied probability and the secondary 78–79 °F bucket. Persistent high pressure and weak southerly flow are expected to limit afternoon mixing while keeping dew points moderate, producing temperatures close to the 30-year late-August climatological normal of 82 °F. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs show only minor spread around this value, with limited potential for either stronger onshore flow or clearer skies that could push readings into the mid-80s. Updated model cycles and the 00Z–12Z short-range verification tomorrow morning will be the next data points likely to refine trader positioning before the market resolves.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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