Persistent geopolitical tensions and maritime risks from the ongoing Iran-related crisis since February have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained, driving trader consensus toward the 20-29 ship range for the week of September 28. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at 15-40 times peacetime levels, while recent attacks—including strikes on three tankers on September 29—have reinforced caution among operators. AIS-visible daily counts hover around 3-9 amid a U.S. blockade and Iranian permit requirements, with many vessels transiting dark or under limited naval escort. Stalled Qatari-mediated talks and the absence of a breakthrough have sustained these low volumes, though some crude outflows via shuttle arrangements provide modest support for slightly higher weekly totals.