Traders assign a 99.8% implied probability to the Jones Act remaining intact by June 30 because no permanent repeal legislation has advanced through Congress and the Trump administration’s recent temporary waivers—issued in March for 60 days and extended through mid-May amid Iran-related energy disruptions—explicitly preserve the core U.S.-build, U.S.-flag, and U.S-crew requirements afterward. Strong opposition from maritime unions and operators, who cite national-security and domestic shipyard employment benefits, has blocked any broader reform despite short-term cost pressures on energy and commodity transport. With only six weeks left before resolution, the market-implied odds reflect entrenched protectionist interests and the absence of an acute catalyst capable of overriding them. A sudden escalation in supply-chain shortages could theoretically prompt last-minute executive action, though such a tail-risk scenario appears remote given the current policy trajectory.