**Current forecasts position overnight lows near 11–12°C as the most likely outcome for Moscow on August 26.** Multiple models, including those referenced by timeanddate, BBC Weather, and the Met Office, indicate a minimum temperature in this narrow band, driven by a combination of moderate westerly or northwesterly flow, increased cloud cover, and light precipitation that limits radiative cooling overnight. Late-August climatology supports these values: Moscow’s average daily minimum declines from roughly 14°C early in the month toward 12°C by month-end, with 2026 conditions tracking close to this baseline rather than showing pronounced anomalies. Recent short-range guidance has remained stable, with no significant model runs shifting the expected low outside the 10–13°C window in the past 48 hours. Trader sentiment therefore concentrates on 11°C and 12°C because these align directly with the consensus forecast minimum; probabilities taper for 10°C or 13°C as those require either greater-than-expected clearing or additional cloud/rain effects. The very low odds assigned to extremes (below 9°C or 15°C+) reflect both the narrow forecast spread and the limited time remaining for major pattern changes before the 24-hour period begins. Updated model runs and official Russian meteorological briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the next clear test of this positioning.